Austin College senior Seth Howard finished his final semester of undergraduate classes in early May. He had taken final tests, turned in papers, completed projects, and defended an honors thesis. In times other than 2020, he would already have crossed the Commencement stage to receive his diploma, having completed majors in business finance and economics.
However, beyond his degree, he had one big test still ahead of him: speaking May 20 during a national webinar to members of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA. His presentation was part of a larger, ongoing discussion about the effects of a Tornado Warning Improvement and Extension Program as called for by the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017, H.R. 353.
Seth spent the 2019-2020 academic year on research that he turned into his departmental honors project, under the supervision of Dr. Kevin Simmons of the economics faculty. Simmons is a nationally recognized expert on the economics of natural disaster, and Seth joined a project the professor had begun in August 2018 with Austin College student researcher Alison Boehmer, 2019 summa cum laude graduate and now a Ph.D. student in political science at University of California–San Diego. Her work included creating a survey and gathering data from businesses in Grayson, Collin, and Dallas counties regarding their responses to tornado warnings and how those responses might change in regard to different warning systems.
Currently, a “deterministic warning” system provides an alert that a storm is or may be in a particular area. In a “probabilistic warning” system, businesses would receive information as to the probability of their location being affected by a tornado or storm.
Seth analyzed the data that Boehmer gathered, and he and Simmons found that the potential economic benefits of a probabilistic warning versus a deterministic warning would create substantial economic savings for the businesses involved. The team found that billions of dollars could be saved by U.S. businesses by helping them to shelter assets and reduce losses, and potentially by reducing opportunity costs incurred by responding to relatively low-likelihood events. Success and savings would be highly dependent upon whether the weather alert system was deemed trustworthy and whether business decision makers had training to understand the warning system and resultant responses.
“This research project has been an amazing experience,” Seth said. “My presentation on May 20 included over 200 attendees, including the head of NOAA, Senate and Congressional staff members, and employees of NOAA. There is a lot of buzz about our research project, and never did I think I would participate in a project of this magnitude as an undergraduate. It was a lot of hard work but being able to present to not only that number of people but that high caliber of people, made the whole process worth it.”
During the past year, Seth has written two academic papers, the first discussing firms’ behaviors based on the current deterministic warning system and the new probabilistic warning system. The second paper was about the savings firms could see if the probabilistic warning system is implemented. “At the end of the second paper, we found that due to changes in responses by firms and preventable losses, firms could see around $2 billion in annual savings,” Seth said. The papers will be submitted for publication this summer.
In February, Seth presented his research at the 2020 Eastern Economic Association Conference in Boston, and his work had been accepted for presentation at the 2020 Economic Scholars Program at the Federal Reserve Bank in Dallas before that event was canceled. He continued his work for departmental graduation honors upon defense of his honors thesis: “Firm Behavior in the Face of Severe Weather: Studying the Effects of Deterministic and Probabilistic Warning Systems.”
“Since working on this project, my interest in severe weather economics has grown and remains a possible research interest as I further my academic career,” Seth said. “This project has helped me hone my analytic and writing skills. It has also given me the chance to complete a research project and understand what a big part of my career would be like if I become a professor.”
He will enter a master’s degree program in economics and mathematical finance this fall at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte, where he received a research and teaching assistantship. He plans to later pursue a Ph.D. in economics though is unsure of a specialty. He initially wants to become a professor and researcher at a small college similar to Austin College, but his ultimate career goal is to become the president of a college or university. “My goals and aspirations have come from the relationships I have built with faculty and staff members at Austin College, such as Dr. Kevin Simmons, Dr. Peter Schulze, Dr. Shannon Cornelison-Brown ’04, Dr. J’Lee Bumpus, President Steven O’Day, and so many others,” Seth said.
Austin College, a private national liberal arts college located north of Dallas in Sherman, Texas, has earned a reputation for excellence in academic preparation, international study, pre-professional foundations, leadership development, committed faculty, and hands-on, adventurous learning opportunities. One of 40 schools profiled in Loren Pope’s influential book Colleges That Change Lives, Austin College boasts a welcoming community that embraces diversity and individuality, with more than 50 percent of students identifying as persons of color. The residential student body of approximately 1,300 students and more than 100 expert faculty members allow a 13:1 student-faculty ratio and personalized attention. Related by covenant to the Presbyterian Church (USA), Austin College cultivates an inclusive atmosphere that supports students’ faith journeys regardless of religious tradition. The College, founded in 1849, is the oldest institution of higher education in Texas operating under original name and charter.